FAA Seminars for January
2004 Winter Film Schedule

Part III of "On Landings" & Icing for GA Aircraft

  • 10 AM, Saturday, January 17, 2003 at Cincinnati Lunken Airport, the Terminal Building - Second Floor, 7 PM
The Wonderful World of Floats
  • 10 AM, Saturday, January 24, 2003 at Cincinnati Lunken Airport, the Terminal Building - Second Floor, 7 PM
Mountain Flying & Why Learn Aerobatics?
  • 10 AM, Saturday, January 31, 2003 at Cincinnati Lunken Airport, the Terminal Building - Second Floor, 7 PM

your destination toward an area you know to be ice free and land at the nearest airport at the first sign of accumulating ice on the airframe, even though your destination is only another 20 minutes away.  Another example, you will land at the nearest airport for fuel when there is only enough fuel for one hour of flight in the tank, even if you are only 20 minutes away from your destination and the closest airport is 5 minutes behind you.
Once you have identified the risk control strategies you must now choose the one that best suits your situation (step four, make the decision).  Keep the decision separate from emotion and other non-contributing factors.  There is always either real or perceived pressure to complete the flight, for example, someone else has the aircraft scheduled after you, or you need to be home (or another destination) for personal or business reason.  The methodology of RM can be used to address this as a problem, permitting you to remove emotions and other pressure from the decision.  Guard against making the RM decision harder than it has to be by not adding hidden issues that don't really factor into the current situation.  Example: "I have to make this flight because I have to be there, my company is paying for me to go and it is an opportunity for me to fly myself and have them pay for it".  You may have to go but you do not have to fly yourself!
Acting on risk control decisions is the next step (step 5).  You have collected the data analyzed the risk, developed alternatives, made the decision and it is time to act.  RM is a great method of assuring that you consider all the data appropriate to flight and it forces you to examine your assumptions about a flight, but RM, like all tools we use, is subject to misuse by the pilot.  Guard against turning assumptions or forecast into facts by the expedient of needing them to be true.  Decisions about each flight consist of hundreds of facts integrated into a few key decisions.  Regardless of how good a decision seems, don't be afraid to abandon it when the data that supported that decision changes or is proven wrong.  Using the RM methodology does not mean that you always plan for the worse case, it means that you do a realistic appraisal of the possibilities and consequences and make a cost benefit decision based on a realistic assessment of the data.
Knowing what went right is as important as knowing what went wrong.  Reviewing the original problems associated with each flight and assessing RM effectiveness (step 6) as you apply the tool will give you confidence in its use.  It has been my experience that decisions about really good options for a routine flight and unanticipated flight situation have an interesting life expectancy; they come either too soon or too late.  RM used properly will reduce the surprises for the experienced but complacent pilot and provide a substitute for experience for a new pilot, and for both groups RM makes sure that the "bag of luck" last a little longer.

Rich Stepler,
DPC Safety Officer

The Safety Corner...

Risk Management and Good Judgment?

This is the second of a two-part article on using the tools associated with risk management to help the new (and experienced) pilot supplement decision-making and fortify good judgment.  In the first article I addressed the first two steps in a six-step risk management process: first, identify the problems and second, assess the risk.  The next steps to be addressed here are: third, analyze the risk control options, fourth, make risk control decisions, fifth, act on risk control decision and sixth, review the original problem and assess RM effectiveness.  Rereading the first article will hopefully put you in the mood to read this installment with fervor (or some other beverage of your choice).
Having identified the problem (step 1) and characterized the risk (step2), step three is to develop risk control measures or options for each situation relevant to this planned flight.  Some obvious options include postpone or cancel the flight, a different flight path, or renting a faster or better-equipped aircraft, driving, or flying commercially.  An example; bad weather can sometimes be avoided by flying around it or by flying before or after the time the weather is a problem.   Establish limits to your intended actions if complete data is not available, and physically note the extent you are willing to go before you reevaluate the situation.  Winter flying offers a classic example of this step in risk management.  The forecasters (protecting themselves for the potential law suits) almost always include the words "icing possible" and in the summer it's "thunderstorms possible".  We hear that warning so much that its true meaning is sometimes lost.  But using RM you must address the possibility, its risk and consequences and formulate alternate risk control strategies.  Taking off and starting toward you destination may be an acceptable risk if there are clearly identifiable options for a safe escape in the event that the ice problem proves to be genuine.  You also must establish and stick to firm predetermined metrics that mandate your next action.  The third step of RM would force you to consider all options to address the risk but if the data is ambiguous and you choose to go anyway, stick to the analysis and your metrics, which, in our example may mean that you will turn away from

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